DRAFTKINGS JUST ERASED 72% OF ITS PROFIT FORECAST. AND CALLED IT THE FUTURE.
DraftKings slashes its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook by 72% at the midpoint while investing up to $700M in Predictions. Revenue and users are growing; profitability is under pressure.
BETDILLA editorial illustration
WELCOME TO THE MOST EXPENSIVE FUTURE IN SPORTS BETTING.
On November 5, DraftKings released its third-quarter results. Revenue climbed 16% to $1.33 billion. Monthly unique payers rose 13% to 4.1 million. Sounds like a victory lap? Not quite. The company's full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast dropped from $700–900 million to $175–275 million. That's a 72% reduction at the midpoint of the two ranges — not a 72% fall in realised profit. Shares fell sharply after the results. The problem isn't simply growth. It's how expensive that growth has become.
THE NEW CASINO DOESN'T CALL ITSELF A CASINO.
DraftKings expects $650–700 million of 2026 investment in Predictions measured by adjusted EBITDA impact. That is a projected business investment, not a reported cash loss. The ambition is obvious: compete in prediction markets as companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket challenge traditional sportsbook economics. DraftKings expects Predictions revenue to be immaterial in 2026 because customer promotions will offset much of the gross revenue. Spend now. Acquire users. Monetise later. The strategy looks glorious in a presentation — until the CFO opens the spreadsheet.
WALL STREET HAS SEEN THIS MOVIE.
DraftKings isn't alone in finding that scale doesn't protect profitability. Flutter recently reported a $1.15 billion quarterly net loss and $873 million in Brazil-related impairments. Different causes, same uncomfortable lesson: revenue growth is no immunity from costly bets. And prediction-market rival Polymarket already knows how fiercely attention is contested: BETDILLA previously examined the controversy around its influencer marketing. The real battle is not only for wagers. It is for customers, engagement and their lifetime value.
CUSTOMER GROWTH IS NOT A PROFIT STRATEGY.
This is the part affiliate executives should read twice. More users don't automatically mean more value. More acquisition spending doesn't automatically mean better unit economics. BETDILLA has explored the same problem at traffic level: 100 FTDs can look impressive while producing disappointing long-term value. Now imagine those acquisition economics with hundreds of millions of dollars at stake.
BUT DRAFTKINGS ISN'T JUST BURNING MONEY FOR FUN.
DraftKings believes its core business can generate $875–925 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2026 before the expected impact of Predictions. That makes the strategic trade-off clear: invest aggressively in a new category, sacrificing consolidated near-term profitability. If Predictions creates durable customers and attractive cross-sell economics, today's spending could look different in retrospect. But future returns are an expectation, not a guarantee. Regulation of event contracts also remains an important risk.
THE INVESTORS DIDN'T ORDER A CRYSTAL BALL.
DraftKings is making a strategic bet, not declaring that 72% of its profits have vanished. A forecast is a forecast. The 72% figure compares the midpoints of two adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges. Still, the numbers capture the tension perfectly: revenue is growing, users are growing, and the earnings outlook is shrinking.
BETDILLA VERDICT.
DraftKings didn't lose its appetite. It ordered the future and sent the bill to its shareholders. The company may be building something enormous — or discovering that buying the next generation of betting customers costs more than anyone expected. Revenue is growing. Users are growing. The forecast is shrinking. Welcome to prediction markets. Where predicting your own profits might be the hardest bet of all.
Sources and fact-checking
DraftKings Investor Relations — Q3 2026 financial results ↗NEXT.io — DraftKings 2026 profit forecast and Predictions ↗SBC Americas — DraftKings Predictions investment and earnings ↗18+. For information only. This is not gambling advice. Availability of gambling products depends on local laws.
